ISSN Print 2500–1094
ISSN Online 2542–1204
BIOMEDICAL JOURNAL OF PIROGOV UNIVERSITY (MOSCOW, RUSSIA)
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
A prognostic model for the prediction of generalized chronic periodontitis in patients with metabolic syndrome
About authors
1 Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), Moscow, Russia
2 Central Research Institute of Dentistry and Maxillofacial Surgery, Moscow, Russia
Correspondence should be addressed: Ekaterina V. Kartysheva
Bolshaya Pirogovskaya 2, bl. 4, Moscow, 119991; ur.liam@46467675098
About paper
Author contribution: Petrukhina NB and Shikh EV conceived the study, analyzed and interpreted the obtained data; Zorina OA analyzed and interpreted the obtained data; Kartysheva EV collected the samples, analyzed the literature and interpreted the obtained data; Kudryavtsev AV prepared the manuscript draft and analyze the literature.
Received: 2018-09-24
Accepted: 2019-03-31
Published online: 2019-04-14
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In this paper, we propose a model for predicting the risk of severe chronic generalized periodontitis (GCP) in patients with metabolic syndrome based on the levels of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) in the periodontal pocket exudate. The analysis of oral cavity cytokine profiles conducted in 537 patients with GCP and comorbid metabolic syndrome showed that increased TNF-α correlated with the severity of GCP: higher levels of TNF-α were observed in patients whose condition was more severe. The prognostic model built in Statistica. 10 allowed us to use TNF-α as a prognostic criterium for GCP severity. We determined the cut-off point above which a high risk of severe GCP can be concluded with 91.2% sensitivity and 70.8% specificity. The spreadsheet in Microsoft Exсel 2010 automatically computed the risk of severe GCP from a patient’s TNF-α concentrations in the PP, which makes the model convenient for routine clinical use in dentistry.
Keywords: cytokines, metabolic syndrome, tumor necrosis factor, periodontitis, TNF, prognostic model