2020 / 04

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DOI: 10.24075/brsmu.2020.046
Copyright: © 2020 by the authors. Licensee: Pirogov University.
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (CC BY).

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Predictive monitoring of secondary epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Iran, Russia and other countries

Kovriguine DA1, Nikitenkova SP2
About authors

1 Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia

2 National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia

Correspondence should be addressed: Svetlana P. Nikitenkova
Gagarina, 23, Nizhny Novgorod; 603950; moc.liamg@avoknetikins

About paper

Author contribution: Kovriguine DA — research planning, literature analysis, data analysis and interpretation, manuscript preparation; Nikitenkova SP — research planning, literature analysis, data analysis and interpretation, manuscript preparation.

Received: 2020-07-13 Accepted: 2020-08-02 Published online: 2020-08-13
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Fig. 1. Epidemic history of Iran. The solid line marks the total officially reported cases by day since the beginning of the epidemic in this country
Fig. 2. Absolute and relative errors of forecasting. On the left, the solid line traces the exponential approximation of a discrepancy between actual and forecast data
Fig. 3. Profile of the first wave of the epidemic in Iran. The extrapolation points reach the epidemic peak of the first wave
Fig. 4. Superposition of two logistic lines both of the first and second waves. We can observe the beginning of the growth of the tertiary wave
Fig. 5. Decomposition of the full input data by total cases in Sweden as a superposition of two logistic lines of the first and second waves
Fig. 6. Decomposition of the input data by total cases in Ukraine
Fig. 7. Secondary epidemic wave in the United States
Fig. 8. Sum of two logistic lines of the first and second epidemic waves in Russia