2023 / 04

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DOI: 10.24075/brsmu.2023.028

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Possible links of wildfires with oncological diseases of children and adults in the Russian Far East

Pinaev SK1,8, Venevsky S2,3, Chakov VV1, Tian L4, Gong P4, Kaprin AD5, Starinsky VV5, Chizhov AYa6,7, Pinaeva OG8
About authors

1 Khabarovsk Federal Research Center, Far Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Khabarovsk, Russia

2 Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

3 The Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

4 The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

5 National Medical Research Radiological Centre of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation. Moscow, Russia

6 Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia

7 Burnazyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency, Moscow, Russia

8 Far Eastern State Medical University, Khabarovsk, Russia

Correspondence should be addressed: Sergey K. Pinaev
Muravyova-Amuskogo, 35, Khabarovsk, 680000, Russia; ur.liam@veanip

About paper

Acknowledgments: we thank Professor N.E. Kosykh from Far Eastern Medical University for their help in collecting data on the updated incidence of malignant neoplasms in children in Khabarovskij Kraj. We acknowledged Olga P. Gretsova for preparing the data for analysis. S. Venevsky acknowledges the support from the Russian State Assignment of the Federal Research Centre of the Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SSC RAS) (122013100131-9) and Department of Earth System Sciences of Tsinghua University.

Author contribution: Pinaev SK — author of the general idea and the main design of the study, collection and analysis of data, and formation of hypotheses; Venevsky S — developed method of spatial and non-linear temporal analysis, presentation and interpretation of results of this analysis and made conclusions; Chakov VV — collection and analysis of information about the fire situation in the Far Eastern Federal district on the basis of data presented in the public domain; Linwei Tian — run ARIMA analysis; Chizhov AYa, Peng Gong, Pinaeva OG — participated in the planning of the study and discussion of the results; Kaprin AD, Venevsky S — Participation in research planning and formation of data on CI based on the national cancer registry of Russia; Venevsky S, Pinaev SK — wrote the manuscript.

Received: 2023-04-25 Accepted: 2023-07-29 Published online: 2023-08-26
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Fig. 1. Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) of Russian Federation in borders till the year 2018 (in yellow) and administrative units used in our study: 1 — Primorskij Kraj; 2 — Khabarovskij Kraj; 3 — Amurskaja Oblast; 4 — Kamchatskij Kraj; 5 — Magadan Oblast; 6 — Sakhalin Oblast. Khabarovsk is the largest city of FEFD (613 thousand inhabitants) and capital of FEFD till the year 2018
Fig. 2. Analysis diagram for time series analysis, where NFi (t) — 28 years time series for normalized total number of fires in i-th, CIiLK(t) — 28 years time series for normalized cancer incidence to leukemia in i-th AU (similar abbreviation for other four cancer types), NFjli (t) — 28 years time series for normalized total number of fires in j-th AU, l-th AU and i-th AU pooled together, CIjliLK (t) — 28 years time series for normalized cancer incidence to leukemia in j-th AU, l-th AU and i-th AU pooled together by one from two pooling algorithms (similar abbreviation for other four cancer types).
Fig. 3. Comparison of distributions of normalized values of cancer incidence and number of fires for AU of Far Eastern federal district. A. Age group “children and teenagers 0–14 years”. B. Age group “the entire population”. C. Age group “children and teenagers 0–14 years” with weighting by number of population in AU to the total population in all of the AUs. D. Age group “the entire population” with weighting by number of population in AU to the total population in all of the AUs
Fig. 4. Coefficient of determination R2 for linear regression between number of fires and tumor incidence for young children up to 4 years in Khabarovskij Kraj
Fig. 5. Relative strength (RS) of relationships (from 0 to 1) between normalized number of fires and cancer incidence for five types of cancer for two age groups with confidence threshold α = 0.1 (A); with confidence threshold α = 0.05 (B)